Why he did and could easily win again and no, most of his voters are not racist
(AP Photo/Morry Gash, Pool) President Donald J. Trump could very well be a two term president tonight, but he could also lose…It honestly is any mans’ (back so long ago in 2016, you could also say man and woman’s) game. If we think there will be a clear, immediate winner, we are mistaken. The United States is far more polarized, confused, angry and disunited since Trump unexpectedly won against a more uniting and experienced the anticipated and experienced former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Just enough of his original voting base will keep him strong, but just enough of loyal Democrats, Hillary fans who seek revenge, losing his only supporters due to disillusionment, the massive rise in racial and economic tension, a massive record amount of new voters who seem emboldened and angry for the past four years, and a new challenge you may not of heard of, wait for it…Covid-19, will come out as well to vote for Joe Biden. It is anyone’s game. We should have known this almost four years ago, which of course leads to my original content for this article: How and why did Trump win 2016? This article has been in the making for more than three years following Trump’s unexpected and disputed victory. We still feel the loss or, in the case of Trump and his voters, unexpected victory. My last article was posted right before the 2016 election results. About a month or two following businessman mogul and celebrity Trump’s unexpected, surprising and confusing victory over Clinton, I began to write a reactionary article explaining how he won and the nation’s reaction. However, said article was not completed, let alone any article due to my many personal reasons, and to be frank, my time and management. The last few years have been quite polarizing as predicted by most experts and citizens due to the polarized views and methods of the White House and growing racial and economic tensions, and of course, not to mention the swing card of the new decade’s very first year, Covid-19! It can be difficult and frustrating for many to accept, but Trump’s victory was quite simple. Yes there were a variety of elements to his victory, but they were all truly simple. The main element is his mascot persona: Although Trump was seen as a joke, controversial, corrupt, and crude by the majority of the nation, including by many of his backers, he was and still is, seen as an authentic, non career politician, a businessman, a man who could be the voice for many who had no voice in the government, a mascot, to fight and yell at the establishment, left and right, who they thought no longer cared or fought for them. This appeal was and is most wildly felt understandably by working class men, particularly white men. This is not a generalization or meant as a way to single anyone out, but common knowledge and understandable, something we should emphasize with and not be upset by. Something that should have been addressed more and taken seriously. Voters, candidates and campaigners, we all should have seen this coming, especially following Bush and Obama. For the past 40-50 years, the United States was quickly changing, becoming rightfully more equal and liberal. Much of the nation was indifferent or embraced it, but during the past decade, many, particularly the middle class white men, felt ostracized, made to feel guilty for their ancestors’ actions, or simply ignored. Many felt the government overall, no matter the party, was concerned more with broken or partial promises to get elected. In regards to the Republicans, they were concerned more with the rich and businesses, and in regards to the Democrats, more concerned with minorities and the poor and overspending taxes to meet these needs. These feelings continued to grow, particularly during the presidency of Barack Obama (2009-2017). Here was a man who was clearly a minority, America and the government was clearly becoming more diverse. Many white middle class men felt this was the official start to a completely new America, different from what they grew up to, and an America that would continue to be more concerned with other people and social reforms. Many other Trump supporters may not fear these earlier concerns, many are not even white, many were also liberal or moderate, but like most of America, want a genuine, non career politician, strong leader. Trump persuades many he is that leader with his persona. When Obama’s presidency was ceasing during the 2016 election, there were plenty of white men who could have replaced him to bring back the status quo or what was familiar, and who were also conservative, such as Jeb Bush or John Kasich. Trump was just like them, right? NO. However, the majority of his voters, again not even just white, conservative men, did not want the status quo anymore. These men did not stand out so much, were viewed by many as yet another same old politician who failed them in the past with broken or repetitive promises, part of the “Swamp”, a phrase Trump loved to use during his campaign. They were not as exciting, strong or authentic as Trump. Even when he spoke less formal, made mistakes or seemed to make light of accusations, he swung back. Even when exposed using explicit sexual phrases or comments, ie With Billy Bush while off the set of Access Hollywood (https://apnews.com/article/ 965ccf46090f4221b977 95bd7b746ab8) he painted himself as just a regular guy who would not act fake or formal, and thus a true American and one of they guys. Even when Trump was caught lying and asked about his inexcusable past dealings and corruption, he simply evaded answering them or simply excused them as “Fake news” or part of a elitist, government , career politician lies or a witch hunt. In the end, I do not think his base or moderates cared, they figured that was the past and he was the best one to rally behind, their only option and mascot. This could be their last chance for a familiar all American strong leader. I must also remind readers that Trump is also a man. Many will fight till their dying day, that having a man or woman in office is not the concern, but then why are there still no women in office. Trump was and is seen as a strong, powerful manly man, Clinton could never please especially his voters; she was either too emotional or too manly and strong and thus unnatural. This sentiment of unnatural, not familiar, is related to a fear or uncertainty which Trump knew was rising and a threat to his opposition. When the election was finally between Clinton and Trump, most of America still believed she would win. This assumption is a major key to her loss. Her base, which was quite large, went to vote, but others who did not want either she or Trump, but assumed he would still lose without voting for her, chose to not vote or voted for a third candidate. Those who had strong feelings against Clinton winning, went out of their way to vote for Trump out of fear and anger. This confidence Clinton was going to win, was also a reason why her campaign team did not work as hard or focus too much on the key states that helped him win; Wisconsin and Michigan (https://www. freep.com /story/news/politics/2016/11/09/how-clinton-lost-blue-wall-states-michigan-pennsylvania-wisconsin/93572020/ ). These two states were historically Democratic. Clinton and her team were confident they need not focus too much on them and thus set out for regions and states that were more leaning and swing states. Unfortunately these states’ middle class white voters were becoming more and more disillusioned with both parties, and viewed Trump as something new who would help them. Clinton’s absence strengthened their views on the loss of a voice or care for them. Scores of people lost hope while scores of others felt emboldened with Trump’s win. Quite instantaneously there have been over three years of controversial Trump tweets, endless, daily worrying and corrupt and scandalous Trump news coverage. Although most would agree there is much fishy, polarizing and abrasiveness when it comes to Trump, the media coverage has over emphasized and covered out of sheer dislike, fighting back at his attitude towards them, and for ratings. Scandals and corruption went so far that the President was officially impeached, but not removed from office. His victory under this impeachment has no doubt polarized and intensified his already chaotic term. Yet after all the turbulence and constant negative coverage , corruption and speciousness of Trump, how could he still win another election? What about the growth of racial tension, BLM, police black shootings, fear and growth of Covid? All these mentioned fears and tensions were ignored or addressed by Trump, arguably his persona created to gain votes, unintentionally grew the tension. There is yet another simple answer; he continues to paint himself as the average all American, authentic, non career politician. Often he continues to blame these accusations as “fake news” or a witch hunt by scared, greedy career politicians. Trump and his voters claim the government or liberals use these events to bring him down. This is a fact, but they ignore or do not want to agree his persona has likely intensified the events. Many Republicans and moderates have shifted away from Trump but it may not be enough (https://www.axios.com/republicans-not-voting-for-trump-in-2020-9e2f02fa-0f36-418d-bedd-ed53181dd99c.html) Trump can easily paint these men and women as deserters or elitists who fear his crusade. His base still fears a new America where they will not be heard or not given enough help as minorities often do. There is still a high chance Trump could win tonight, but it will be a hard and close vote indeed. Many fear Biden will ruin the economy by locking down America in order to fight Covid, Trump says he will keep America fully opened and functioning, Many voters, due to all the tension, economic challenges and decline, and social wars, feel having the same leader and not a transitioning government during the height of all the tension, will be best. Biden is also painted as an elitist, career politician who has done little, and who is tied in with the Obama and Clinton years. Since the election of 2016, Biden’s Democratic Party has been pressured to shift more to the left in order to appease younger voters and new civil rights leaders and activists, particularly after Bernie Sanders ran and BLM’s growth and significance. This shifting and pressure has been a gift to Trump, who can further create fear and concern to his base, and to even more moderates and Democrats, that their old America is forgetting them. However we must remember, due to Clinton’s loss, rise in racial tension, women empowerment, diversity in the government, records mount of young and older voters alike, disunity, and constant negative and loud news coverage of Trump and his personality, many on the left and right are just tired. There may be enough people and new voters just tired and who simply will vote him out of sheer disillusionment and for quite time. If Trump does happen to lose, we will continue to hear from him. He will, as he already has begun months in advance, belittle and question the authenticity of the ballots and early voting (https://www.usatoday.com/story/ news/politics/elections/ 2020/09/30/2020-debate-trump-makes-outrageous-claims-mail-voting/3586836001/). He claims he will not leave office until the election is found to be valid (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/ 9/26/21457193/trump-leave-office-loses-election-ballot-scam). Even when or if out of office, he will continue to speak out, perhaps even one day run again. Trump has no doubt created a new level style of governing . He questions everything, every protocol and procedure to appear more authentic, his own man, or to evade something that will weaken him. This vacuum he has opened may very well continue if he loses, so to convince the government to stay in office, and it will most likely be replicated by new leaders to gain power or influence. I fear there will be much more tension and possibly a social or civil war no matter who wins, but far more intensity and angry should Biden lose. Far too many people now feel fearful of the government, unheard and belittled, and another Trump term and victory will be too much. What we all need to remember though is, all Americans just want security, peace, a voice, their hard work to be recognized, affordable health insurance and to retire. We do not want wars, riots, a virus, we all want the same results. Many feel Trump is their only mascot, warrior, that no one else cares or is authentic like him. Trump is a wake up call, we need to hear all Americans, not just the less franchised or assisted, all must be heard and feel secure. This does not mean we cannot and should stop funding and fighting for assistance programs or civil rights and equality, but we must hear and help all. |